The finance ministry on Wednesday said the government will borrow Rs 4.34 lakh crore in the second half of the current fiscal to meet its expenditure requirement amid COVID-19 crisis afflicting the country's economy.
The Union Budget's focus on capital expenditure is expected to crowd-in private investment and push the GDP growth rate close to 7 per cent in the next financial year beginning April 1, said a Reserve Bank article on 'State of the Economy'. In 2023-24, capital expenditure is budgeted at Rs 10 lakh crore which will constitute 3.3 per cent of GDP. "We believe that India will decouple from macroeconomic projections of current vintage and also from the rest of the world.
IThe fiscal deficit target for 2020-2021 was originally set at 3.5 per cent of GDP. But the government's revenues have collapsed and its expenditure burden will only increase over the Budget estimates.' With the government having already planned for an additional borrowing of over Rs 4 trillion, the fiscal deficit for the current year would be much higher than the Budget estimate, notes A K Bhattacharya.
'But can it afford to present a scenario within the existing legal framework of fiscal consolidation?', asks A K Bhattacharya.
Attributing the growth to an upswing in consumption and investment, the World Bank has said India will continue to be the fastest growing major economy in the world.
The government may take a fresh look at BPCL privatisation, including revising the terms of sale, an official said. "We need to go back to the drawing board on BPCL. "There are issues in terms of consortium formation, geopolitical situation and energy transition aspects," an official said. The government is selling its entire 52.98 per cent stake in BPCL for which three expressions of interest (EoIs), including one from billionaire Anil Agarwal-led Vedanta Group, have been received.
The bench said it has to balance the equity and it was not against any policy of the government or the scheme.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday said the resurgence of COVID-19 infections may delay India's economic recovery, but won't derail it, as it kept the sovereign rating unchanged at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook. It projected a 12.8 per cent recovery in GDP in the fiscal year ending March 2022 (FY22), moderating to 5.8 per cent in FY23, from an estimated contraction of 7.5 per cent in 2020-21. Fitch had in June last year revised outlook for India to 'negative' from 'stable' on grounds that the coronavirus pandemic had significantly weakened the country's growth outlook and exposed the challenges associated with a high public debt burden.
India's manufacturing sector activity moderated in January amid slower increase in total sales, and headcounts were broadly unchanged amid sufficient staff numbers to cope with current requirements, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from December's recent high of 57.8 to 55.4 in January, as factory orders and production rose at sharp, albeit slower, rate. The January PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 19th straight month.
The FRBM report, to be submitted on Tuesday, is likely to have 'excuse clauses', absolving the government of meeting its fiscal commitments under certain conditions such as war or conflict, global economic meltdowns or natural disasters.
The real requirement for the finance minister's explanatory speech is to explain the measures taken in the Budget to influence inflation and growth not just through the announcement of a deficit goal, but more broadly through the impact on money supply, consumer demand, foreign trade and investment, explains Nitin Desai.
The Budget has to provide for capex on roads, railways, defence and other infrastructure sectors.
The government's Rs 20.97 lakh crore COVID-19 package lacks in addressing the immediate concerns of the economy as the actual fiscal impact of the additional stimulus is only about 1 per cent of the GDP as opposed to the claim of 10 per cent, Fitch Solutions said on Tuesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 12 announced a stimulus package of Rs 20 lakh crore, or nearly 10 per cent of GDP, to deal with the economic fallout of COVID-19. The contents of the package were broad-based and announced in five tranches.
Mihir Tanna, Associate Director, S K Patodia & Associates, answers your tax queries.
Google will lay off 12,000 jobs across the globe, its CEO Sundar Pichai announced on Friday, becoming the latest tech giant after Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon to retrench staff en mass amid the global economic downturn. In an email to employees, the Indian-origin CEO said: "I have some difficult news to share. We've decided to reduce our workforce by approximately 12,000 roles." Pichai said the layoffs at Google were carried out after a "rigorous review" of its operations.
Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said cryptocurrencies are akin to 'a world of Caribbean pirates' in the absence of a centralised regulatory authority and are yet to pass the test of a fiat currency. He said that the government is pursuing a 'high-wire balancing act' to ensure that the gains in growth, inflation, and rupee stability of the last four years are not frittered away. He said the recent development in Terra-Luna cryptocurrency, which witnessed a massive meltdown last month, is a 'very important cautionary tale'.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday met IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva and discussed a range of issues, including impact of geopolitical situation on global growth.
The government will set up 16 new medical colleges over the next five years.
It would be interesting to see what the government proposes to investors.
Need of the hour is to spend to grow more, the study said.
The government on Friday came out with Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) 2023 which seeks to boost the country's exports to $2 trillion by 2030 by shifting from incentives to remission and entitlement based regime. Unlike the practice of announcing 5-year FTP, the latest policy has no end date and will be updated as and when needed, said Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) Santosh Sarangi while briefing media about FTP 2023. Earlier, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal unveiled FTP 2023 which will come into effect from April 1, 2023.
States also demanded that Budget for 2015-16 should make adequate provisions for central sales tax compensation for early roll out of Goods and Services Tax, a Constitutional Amendment Bill for which was tabled in the Lok Sabha last week.
A parliamentary committee has pulled up the finance ministry for not adhering to Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act in cutting revenue deficit by 0.5 per cent of GDP for 2005-06 saying there should not be deviations every now and then.
'India is nowhere near the peak of the infection given its large population of 1.3 billion'
The employment situation remains dire. Whatever can be done to promote greater low-skill employment should be pursued aggressively, advises former chief economic adviser Shankar Acharya.
'Event management can distract from, but not permanently mask, execution failures,' points out Rathin Roy, director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
This move will enable it to incur higher-than-mandated borrowing, and possibly spending, till the 2024 Lok Sabha election cycle.
Vijay Kelkar, advisor to the finance minister, has been entrusted with the new task of preparing quarterly review of the economy as mandated under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act.
The rupee is likely to strengthen to 60-61 level by this fiscal-end on expectations of improvement in current account deficit (CAD) and higher inflows from overseas investors.
It would also be the last policy of Rajan
The National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) on Thursday reserved its order on crisis-hit airline Go First's plea seeking voluntary insolvency resolution proceedings and interim moratorium on financial obligations while aircraft lessors vehemently opposed the petition. Amid the airline facing severe financial crunch and cancelling flights, a two-member NCLT bench comprising Justice Ramalingam Sudhakar and Member L N Gupta heard the arguments for and against the petition for nearly four hours. As aircraft lessors opposed the plea, the counsels for Go First said the petition was not a malicious one to avoid payment of dues to its creditors but to save the company.
'It has been an ongoing process, talking to the relevant ministries about eliminating leakages and curbing non-core expenditure in various schemes.'
The vaccination drive was only one important part of India's globally recognised pandemic management and response strategy, observes Dr Vinod K Paul.
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