Despite getting lukewarm response from the earlier two auctions, the government on Monday said it is confident of meeting the revenue target of Rs 40,000 crore (Rs 400 billion) from spectrum sale this fiscal.
India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to expand by 9.2 per cent in the current financial year, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 tabled in the parliament on Monday. "Advance estimates suggest that the Indian economy is expected to witness real GDP expansion of 9.2 per cent in 2021-22 after contracting in 2020-21. "This implies that overall economic activity has recovered past the pre-pandemic levels," Economic Survey noted. Almost all indicators show that the economic impact of the "second wave" in Q1 was much smaller than that experienced during the full lockdown phase in 2020-21 even though the health impact was more severe, it said.
'The robust tax collections give the finance minister a fair amount of headroom for an expansionary fiscal policy.'
There has been a decline in foreign direct inflow from China in the last three years, with FDI coming down to USD 163.77 million in 2019-20, Minister of State for Finance Anurag Singh Thakur informed the Lok Sabha on Monday. Giving details of the total foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow from Chinese companies in India, he said, it was USD 350.22 million in 2017-18, while it declined to USD 229 million in the following year.
Whether this remains under control in the coming months will depend on the future intensity and spread of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the effectiveness of the Indian government's response, points out A K Bhattacharya.
'Efforts to roll out GST from next fiscal'
Government needs tight control over both expenditure and populism.
In a sudden development, the Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd (GCMMF), which markets its products under the brand name 'Amul', on Monday ousted its long-serving Managing Director R S Sodhi but did not give any reason. However, Sodhi said he had requested the federation's board to relieve him of his duties. The federation's chief operating officer Jayenbhai Mehta has been given the interim charge of the managing director (MD).
At a pre-Budget meeting, the FM was asked to ensure that NBFCs come out of the liquidity crisis they are facing with the help of RBI. They also spoke about the futility of trying to achieve a 3 per cent fiscal deficit target over the medium term.
To keep investors' confidence, however, Modi's government will need to be seen containing the fiscal deficit, while also increasing spending in key areas of the slowing economy.
What's different this time is that global financial stress -- which has its genesis in four policy choices made in recent years -- is juxtaposed with a more resilient real economy, observes Sajjid Z Chinoy, chief India economist at J P Morgan.
The tax base should comprehensively extend over all goods and services up to the final consumer point.
The economic fundamentals were strong enough to ensure 6-6.5 per cent growth in GDP during 2003-04, while fiscal deficit will be under control, D C Gupta, finance secretary said on Friday.
This is not an election Budget in the sense that I might target the voter in the coming elections. But if you look beyond this round of state elections, and tilt the periscope to graze at the more distant horizon, see how the Narendra Modi government wishes things looking by the summer of 2024, observes Shekhar Gupta.
The growth momentum in India's manufacturing sector was maintained in February, with new orders and output increasing at similar rates to January, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 55.3 in February, little-changed from 55.4 in January. The February PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 20th straight month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 indicates contraction.
Credit rating agencies have been raising red flag over high debt to GDP ratio of India.
India's services sector growth accelerated in April, as strong demand conditions resulted in the fastest increase in new business and output in close to 13 years, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The pick-up in demand occurred in spite of escalating price pressures. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 57.8 in March to 62.0 in April, signalling the fastest expansion in output since mid 2010, amid a pick-up in new business growth and favourable market conditions.
The finance ministry on Wednesday said the government will borrow Rs 4.34 lakh crore in the second half of the current fiscal to meet its expenditure requirement amid COVID-19 crisis afflicting the country's economy.
'The actions of Indian monetary authorities will depend on how quickly they want the inflation to come down to 4 per cent.'
India's deployment of a direct cash transfer scheme and other similar social welfare programmes is a "logistical marvel", the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday. "From India, there is a lot to learn. There is a lot to learn from some other examples around the world. "We have examples from pretty much every continent and every level of income. "If I look at the case of India, it is actually quite impressive," Paolo Mauro, deputy director of the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF, told reporters at a news conference in Washington.
Attributing the growth to an upswing in consumption and investment, the World Bank has said India will continue to be the fastest growing major economy in the world.
IThe fiscal deficit target for 2020-2021 was originally set at 3.5 per cent of GDP. But the government's revenues have collapsed and its expenditure burden will only increase over the Budget estimates.' With the government having already planned for an additional borrowing of over Rs 4 trillion, the fiscal deficit for the current year would be much higher than the Budget estimate, notes A K Bhattacharya.
'But can it afford to present a scenario within the existing legal framework of fiscal consolidation?', asks A K Bhattacharya.
Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday said the media needs to remain vigilant and flag shortcomings of the government with a view to improve the effectiveness of governance.
The FRBM report, to be submitted on Tuesday, is likely to have 'excuse clauses', absolving the government of meeting its fiscal commitments under certain conditions such as war or conflict, global economic meltdowns or natural disasters.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday said the resurgence of COVID-19 infections may delay India's economic recovery, but won't derail it, as it kept the sovereign rating unchanged at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook. It projected a 12.8 per cent recovery in GDP in the fiscal year ending March 2022 (FY22), moderating to 5.8 per cent in FY23, from an estimated contraction of 7.5 per cent in 2020-21. Fitch had in June last year revised outlook for India to 'negative' from 'stable' on grounds that the coronavirus pandemic had significantly weakened the country's growth outlook and exposed the challenges associated with a high public debt burden.
The Union Budget's focus on capital expenditure is expected to crowd-in private investment and push the GDP growth rate close to 7 per cent in the next financial year beginning April 1, said a Reserve Bank article on 'State of the Economy'. In 2023-24, capital expenditure is budgeted at Rs 10 lakh crore which will constitute 3.3 per cent of GDP. "We believe that India will decouple from macroeconomic projections of current vintage and also from the rest of the world.
The government may take a fresh look at BPCL privatisation, including revising the terms of sale, an official said. "We need to go back to the drawing board on BPCL. "There are issues in terms of consortium formation, geopolitical situation and energy transition aspects," an official said. The government is selling its entire 52.98 per cent stake in BPCL for which three expressions of interest (EoIs), including one from billionaire Anil Agarwal-led Vedanta Group, have been received.
The bench said it has to balance the equity and it was not against any policy of the government or the scheme.
The Budget has to provide for capex on roads, railways, defence and other infrastructure sectors.
India's manufacturing sector activity moderated in January amid slower increase in total sales, and headcounts were broadly unchanged amid sufficient staff numbers to cope with current requirements, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from December's recent high of 57.8 to 55.4 in January, as factory orders and production rose at sharp, albeit slower, rate. The January PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 19th straight month.
The government's Rs 20.97 lakh crore COVID-19 package lacks in addressing the immediate concerns of the economy as the actual fiscal impact of the additional stimulus is only about 1 per cent of the GDP as opposed to the claim of 10 per cent, Fitch Solutions said on Tuesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 12 announced a stimulus package of Rs 20 lakh crore, or nearly 10 per cent of GDP, to deal with the economic fallout of COVID-19. The contents of the package were broad-based and announced in five tranches.
It would be interesting to see what the government proposes to investors.
Need of the hour is to spend to grow more, the study said.
States also demanded that Budget for 2015-16 should make adequate provisions for central sales tax compensation for early roll out of Goods and Services Tax, a Constitutional Amendment Bill for which was tabled in the Lok Sabha last week.
A parliamentary committee has pulled up the finance ministry for not adhering to Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act in cutting revenue deficit by 0.5 per cent of GDP for 2005-06 saying there should not be deviations every now and then.
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