Making a case for an optimal fiscal stance, the Economic Survey on Friday said growth leads to debt sustainability and not necessarily vice-versa. "This is because debt sustainability depends on the 'Interest Rate Growth Rate Differential' (IRGD) i.e. the difference between the interest rate and the growth rate in an economy. "With the Indian context of potential high growth, the interest rate on debt paid by the Indian government has been less than India's growth rate by norm, not by exception," it said.
The Indian economy appears to have slowed down in 2018-19 due to lower private consumption, tepid growth in fixed investment and muted exports, a finance ministry report has said.
If the government cuts wasteful expenditure as it is trying now, the deficit would at most fall to 8 per cent, not less than that.
'The finance ministry's decision to accept the deficit target of 4.5 per cent in 2025-2026 appears to have emanated from its endorsement of the Finance Commission's view that the Indian economy will continue to remain impacted by the pandemic, adversely undermining its growth potential,' notes A K Bhattacharya.
Amid demands for snapping trade ties with China for its transgressions on the border, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya has opined that cutting trade with Beijing at this juncture would amount to sacrificing India's potential economic growth. Instead, Panagariya suggested that India should try to enter into free trade agreements (FTA) with countries such as the UK and the European Union to expand its trade. "Engaging China in a trade war at this juncture will mean sacrificing a considerable part of our potential growth... purely on economic grounds, it will be unwise to take any action in response to it (transgressions on the border)," the eminent economist told PTI.
Former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya has opined that cutting trade with Beijing at this juncture would amount to sacrificing India's potential economic growth.
With nearly 100 countries closing national borders during the past month, the movement of people and tourism flows have come to a screeching halt. The contraction could be even higher if governments fail to provide income support and help boost consumer spending.
After a contraction in the current financial year, India's economy is forecast to bounce back with a sharp growth rate of 9.5 per cent next year provided it avoids further deterioration in financial sector health, Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday. The coronavirus pandemic will lead to shrinking of the already slowing economy in 2020-21 that started in April. Fitch Ratings forecast a 5 per cent contraction in the GDP in the ongoing financial year.
The Union Budget for 2004-05, which is being viewed as a "litmus test" for the Congress-led government, may unveil the roadmap for wiping out revenue deficit well in advance by 2007 and a subsequent reduction in fiscal deficit to manageable limits.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram said revenue deficits would have to be wiped out first in the economy.
Economy is expected to grow by 7.2 per cent in 2005-06, a notch higher than Reserve Bank of India's estimate of 7.0 per cent
Booming manufacturing and services sector is likely to push up India's GDP growth to 7.7 per cent in 2006-07, but inflationary pressure may lead to hike in interest rates
Pakistan-India bilateral relations remained frozen for the fourth year over the vexed Kashmir issue but analysts hope the strained ties could be repaired if Nawaz Sharif becomes the prime minister for a record fourth time in the general elections in February in the absence of his main challenger Imran Khan who is in jail in multiple cases.
Despite getting lukewarm response from the earlier two auctions, the government on Monday said it is confident of meeting the revenue target of Rs 40,000 crore (Rs 400 billion) from spectrum sale this fiscal.
Chief Election Commissioner Nasim Zaidi has written to Cabinet Secretary P K Sinha who is likely to consult the parliamentary affairs ministry before framing his response on the government's plans to advance the budget presentation to February 1, sources said.
There are several welcome standalone reforms, but these do not add up to a coherent strategy to achieve a $5 trillion economy or secure Aatmanirbharta, observes Rathin Roy.
'Efforts to roll out GST from next fiscal'
Government needs tight control over both expenditure and populism.
Sri Lankans queued up to apply for fresh passports outside the department of immigration and emigration office in Colombo.
In an accompanying vision statement, the former finance minister highlighted his track record of serving in the Cabinet, helping to steer the economy through the toughest of times with the COVID pandemic.
This is a moment when the leaders at the Centre and states must show true leadership for the sake of the country. And it is the top political leaders, not attorney generals or bureaucrats, who should be sitting together and settling this thorny issue of compensation, says Arvind Subramanian, former Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India.
For fiscal year FY23, the 2022 Union Budget had targeted a capex outlay of Rs 7.5 trillion, which is 35.4 per cent higher than the FY22 Budget Estimate of Rs 5.54 trillion.
There has been a decline in foreign direct inflow from China in the last three years, with FDI coming down to USD 163.77 million in 2019-20, Minister of State for Finance Anurag Singh Thakur informed the Lok Sabha on Monday. Giving details of the total foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow from Chinese companies in India, he said, it was USD 350.22 million in 2017-18, while it declined to USD 229 million in the following year.
To keep investors' confidence, however, Modi's government will need to be seen containing the fiscal deficit, while also increasing spending in key areas of the slowing economy.
The economic fundamentals were strong enough to ensure 6-6.5 per cent growth in GDP during 2003-04, while fiscal deficit will be under control, D C Gupta, finance secretary said on Friday.
The tax base should comprehensively extend over all goods and services up to the final consumer point.
At a pre-Budget meeting, the FM was asked to ensure that NBFCs come out of the liquidity crisis they are facing with the help of RBI. They also spoke about the futility of trying to achieve a 3 per cent fiscal deficit target over the medium term.
Driven by strong demand, the overall passenger vehicle dispatches crossed 3.35 lakh units in February as automakers, including Maruti Suzuki India, Hyundai, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra, reported robust sales during the month. The dispatches of more than 3.35 lakh units last month marked an 11 per cent over February 2022. It was also the highest ever overall wholesales in the month of February. The country's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki India on Wednesday said its domestic wholesales rose 11 per cent to 155,114 units in February as compared with 140,035 units in the same month last year.
Addressing a public meeting after unveiling a 125 ft-tall statue of B R Ambedkar here, KCR said the BRS party was getting a tremendous response from Maharashtra and was expecting a similar reaction from West Bengal, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh.
India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to expand by 9.2 per cent in the current financial year, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 tabled in the parliament on Monday. "Advance estimates suggest that the Indian economy is expected to witness real GDP expansion of 9.2 per cent in 2021-22 after contracting in 2020-21. "This implies that overall economic activity has recovered past the pre-pandemic levels," Economic Survey noted. Almost all indicators show that the economic impact of the "second wave" in Q1 was much smaller than that experienced during the full lockdown phase in 2020-21 even though the health impact was more severe, it said.
'The robust tax collections give the finance minister a fair amount of headroom for an expansionary fiscal policy.'
Just 14 companies raised Rs 35,456 crore through main-board primary share sales in the first half of the fiscal, down 32 per cent from the year-ago period when 25 issues had mopped up Rs 51,979 crore. But according to Prime Database, the IPO pipeline is strong with 71 issues worth Rs 1,05,000 crore having Sebi approvals and another 43 worth about Rs 70,000 crore are awaiting approval. Of these 114 planned issues, 10 are new-age tech companies, which are looking to raise roughly Rs 35,000 crore.
Credit rating agencies have been raising red flag over high debt to GDP ratio of India.
Ahead of the Budget, the government has achieved almost half the divestment target of Rs 65,000 crore. FY23 divestment receipts are unlikely to be anywhere close to the budgeted target.
Attributing the growth to an upswing in consumption and investment, the World Bank has said India will continue to be the fastest growing major economy in the world.
The finance ministry on Wednesday said the government will borrow Rs 4.34 lakh crore in the second half of the current fiscal to meet its expenditure requirement amid COVID-19 crisis afflicting the country's economy.
The FRBM report, to be submitted on Tuesday, is likely to have 'excuse clauses', absolving the government of meeting its fiscal commitments under certain conditions such as war or conflict, global economic meltdowns or natural disasters.
Whether this remains under control in the coming months will depend on the future intensity and spread of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the effectiveness of the Indian government's response, points out A K Bhattacharya.
